Tuesday, June 6, 2017

High Level Predictions about Life in the Year 2100

I have previously written a series of articles about Technology Advancements and Life in 2050. In this article a first attempt is made to project even further into time and make predictions about life by the end of the century – Year 2100. By then we will have completed the transition from a Type 0 to a Type 1 Civilization.

  • A Type 0 civilization extracts its energy, information, raw-materials from crude organic-based sources, e.g. food/wood/fossil fuel/books/oral traditions; pressures via natural disaster, natural selection, and societal collapse creates extreme risk of extinction; it's capable of orbital spaceflight; societies that fail to improve social, environmental and medical understanding concurrently with other advancements, frequently accelerated their own extinction.
  • A Type I civilization extracts its energy, information, and raw-materials from fusion power, hydrogen, and other "high-density" renewable-resources; is capable of interplanetary spaceflight, interplanetary communication, megascale engineering, and interplanetary colonization, medical and technological singularity, planetary engineering, world government and trade, and stellar system-scale influence; but are still vulnerable to possible extinction.
  • A Type II civilization extracts fusion energy, information, and raw-materials from multiple solar systems; it is capable of evolutionary intervention, interstellar travel, interstellar communication, stellar engineering, and star cluster-scale influence; the resulting proliferation and diversification would theoretically negate the probability of extinction.
  • A Type III civilization extracts fusion energy, information, and raw-materials from all possible star-clusters; it's capable of intergalactic travel via wormholes and intergalactic communication, galactic engineering and galaxy-scale influence.
  • A Type IV civilization extracts energy, information, and raw-materials from all possible galaxies; it's effectively immortal and omnipotent with universal-scale influence, possessing the ability of theoretical time travel and instantaneous matter-energy transformation and teleportation, moving entire asteroid belts and stars, creating alternate timelines and more.




Predictions for the Year 2100

The following are a preliminary set of high level predictions of life in the Year 2100:


Global Population

It is predicted that the global population will be close to 12 billion by 2100, barring any unforseen major pandemic or major extinction event. Over 80% of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas where ‘Smart Cities’ will house the bulk of the world's population. Networks of metropolitan regions linked by new forms of government, transportation, communication, and economic systems. By 2100, governments around the world will be using various forms of population control, e.g. preventive medical solutions, legally approved coercion, re-engineering social norms. Technology will allow us to overcome language barriers allowing people to communicate anyone in the world – and to communicate telepathically.


Agriculture

Demand for Food and Water resources will grow substantially as the global population increases substantially by the end of this century. High-tech solutions, precision farming systems, use of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO), expansion of urban farming techniques… will all be needed to boost yields several times over to meet the growing global demand. Expect to see widespread use of drones, robots, artificial intelligance (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), autonomous self-driving farming vehicles, global weather control, and many other new technologies designed to meet the needs of the large scale corporate farms of the future. Today’s scarce fresh water resources will be vastly expanded by low-cost desalinization technologies that will convert sea water into potable water.


Business & Manufacturing

Global standards will be in place for all sectors of the economy, e.g. technology, medicine, manufacturing, transportation, telecommunications. Use of Smart 3D Printers, Robots, Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), Advanced Manufacturing Techniques... will dramatically transform manufacturing by the end of the century. Many new and almost unimaginable ‘smart’ materials and technologies for building housing, making clothing, manufacturing cars... will be developed and put into use. Much of the workforce will use augmented and virtual reality technologies to perform their work remotely in most industries, e.g. education, healthcare, research, manufacturing, retail, transportation... both on Earth and off-planet.


Finance

A new global ‘digital’ currency and a more secure monetary system will have emerged and taken hold by the end of the century. Use of coins and paper money will be a distant memory. New and continuously evolving global financial systems will draw heavily upon the use of new technologies, e.g. Blockchain, ‘Bitcoins’, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Crowdfunding, Implantables, Sensors, Smart ‘Wallets’... Tens of thousands of bank branches will close and most accounting jobs will disappear. Collaboration, 'Open' Solutions, and Continuous Innovation will remain key management strategies for success throughout the 21st century.


Education

Education will be free for everyone and human illiteracy will have been eliminated around the world. Access to free, continuous life-long learning opportunities will be available for all as the rate of change continues to accelerate. humans to adapt to the global economy. Many new technologies like implantable computer-brain interface technology, artificial intelligence (AI), 5G Internet, virtual and augmented reality systems, free and ‘open access’ to research and educational materials… will all play a role in revolutionizing the education system, and eliminating the cost of acquiring knowledge and becoming more productive in the future.


Energy

The official end of the 'Oil Age' and use of fossil fuels on Earth will have occurred back in 2050. A range of renewable energy sources will provide 100% of the world’s energy, e.g. wind, solar, hydro, fuel cell, nuclear fusion – and maybe still a little oil and natural gas. Continent-wide ‘smart supergrids' will be used to help manage the world's energy needs. Both the high cost and scarcity of energy on Earth will be a thing of the past. Roofs, windows, painted surfaces, clothes… will all be used to collect energy for home and office devices, with excess unused energy being fed into the country’s smart supergrid. Wireless energy transmission systems will be in common use.



Environment

Average global temperatures will have risen by more than 5°F by 2100. Ongoing climate change will make storms far more intense around the world, e.g. hurricanes, tornados, cyclones, monsoons. Sea levels across the globe will rise by a little over 3 feet, flooding many coastal areas around the world. Major extinctions of many animals and plant life will have occurred. For example, deep ocean mining operations around the world will become widespread further disrupting sea life. Nearly half of the rain forests and jungles in the world today will have vanished, but global efforts to halt de-forestation, clean up the seas, restore coral reefs… will have finally taken hold. Many displaced people will have migrated to Antartica as the snow cap melted and it became habitable.



Health

The rise of 'Regenerative Medicine', Genetic Engineering, Stem Cell Research, and the development of 'Human Augmentation' technologies will dramatically alter people's health for the better over this next century. New technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics, Internet of Things (IoT), and the Invisible User Interface (IUI) will all be incorporated into Health 4.0 systems of the future. Use of DNA biorepositories and genomic information systems will further transform healthcare, help lower costs, combat diseases, reduce child mortality, and extend human lifespans to well over 100 years. Look to see the emergence of a new health industry focused on BioEngineering human organs and new lifeforms.


Technology

There will be more than a 1,000-fold increase in computer processing power, data collection and storage, information analysis and dissemination... By the year 2100, there will be widespread use of robots, drones, virtual reality, smart appliances, 5G Internet, artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), nano-bots, brain-computer interfaces (BCI), unmanned autonomous vehicles (UAV), 3-D printers, Invisible User Interface (IUI), teleportation, and many other technologies in every industries, e.g. agriculture, manufacturing, military, government, transportation… Wearable and implantable technologies, not to mention teleportation and telepathy systems, will also be widely used in all facets of daily life,, e.g. healthcare, education, security, ... All will be needed to solve many of the challenges brought about by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, climate change, pandemics...


Transportation

Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell powered vehicles will have long since replaced fossil fuel powered vehicles. Hi-tech unmanned autonompus vehicles (UAV) will be the dominant form of transportation with very few people owning their own cars. High speed Maglev trains and Hyperloop systems will be completed between major cities across the U.S. and around the world. These will all have a dramatic impact on the trucking and airplane industries as we currently know them. Finally, the commercial space transportation industry will continue to grow and evolve as mankind begins to colonize outer space.


Government & Society

The vast majority of countries will have adopted some form of democratic government. New alliances and partnerships between countries will lead to reinventing regional and global governance systems. Many non-state actors will take the lead from governments in confronting major global challenges, e.g. climate, pollution, healthcare… Building leadership in government and business that can be 'trusted', that is not corrupt, is citizen-centered, and not built on greed and the quest for money and power... will continue to be a major challenge for society to achieve.

By the end of the 21st century, real time language translation technology will greatly improve global communications between individuals and organizations around the world. There will be continued progress towards the eradication illiteracy and global poverty levels. Women will have assumed a significantly growing role in public and private sector organizations across the world. Racial, religious, and gender discrimination and intolerance will have also been largely eradicated in the US and many other parts of the world. Finally, each individual will receive some guaranteed form of Universal Basic Income (UBI) from government which will meet the minimum requirements to sustain their lives, especially when changing jobs or looking for new work.


Military &Warfare

It will be highly unlikely that war will go extinct, though its frequency, nature, and scope will continue to change and adapt to the future we will inhabit. Many wars will be fought in the ‘virtual world’. It is expected that rapid changes and shifts in ‘power’ may ultimately lead to more smaller intra-state and inter-state conflicts around the globe.

There will be widespread use of new technologies in weapon systems, e.g. Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles (UAV), artificial intelligence (AI), laser weapons, drones, robots, human augmentation technology, teleportation, telepathy... Also, expect to see the use of military weapons and warfare spreading to outer space as the quest to colonize the moon and other planets across our solar system becomes a reality.


Space Travel & Colonization

Spaceflight technology will have taken a major leap forward allowing for Inter-Planetary travel. Millions of humans will make up the first wave of immigrants populating permanent colonies on other planets and moons in our Solar System. Large scale geoengineering construction in support of these steadily growing colonies will have begun. Public and private sector organizations will be aggressively moving forward to further explore and exploit resources on nearby planets, moons, and asteroids in outer-space well into the 22nd century. Plans for the first unmanned journeys to potentially habitable planets in the nearest solar systems of our Galaxy will be initiated.


Conclusion

We are in the midst of the transition from the ‘Industrial Age’ of the 20th century into the ‘Information Age’ of the 21st century. We are also in the midst of the transition from a Type 0 Civilization into a Type 1 Civilization. It’s an amazing time to be living and the world is in some turmoil as it struggles to deal with these momentous transitions. To help people deal with the rapid pace of change all around the, this article attempts to paint a preliminary picture of the future to help make some sense of the seeming chaotic times we are living through. I hope you find this article informative and brings some clarity about the rapidly changing world you, your children, and your grandchildren are living in.






Links to Selected Resources & Reports







Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Global Health 4.0 for 2040 and Beyond

Health 4.0 focuses on collaboration, coherence, and convergence – or connecting all available health information, services, devices and people together in a more meaningful way. See Global Artificial Intelligence Network for 2040.

Future Scenario: By 2040, a space-based global artificial intelligence (AI) network of satellites will be put in place that will monitor and help provide healthcare to people on Earth and in colonies across our solar system on the Moon, Mars, and other locations. The system will be linked to massive global health data warehouses storing data from a wide range of health IT systems, e.g. Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems, Personal Health Records (PHR), Health Information Exchange (HIE) networks, wearable fitness trackers, implantable medical devices, clinical imaging systems, genomic databases and biorepositories, surgical robots, health research knowledgebases and more.

The space-based global AI system will monitor and analyze the health data gathered on all humans in real-time, detecting potential individual and public health issues. The global AI system will detect problems, diagnose them, send alerts to patients and their healthcare providers, and generate treatment plans to resolve the healthcare issue. The system will also be interfaced to pharmacies, laboratories, health insurers, public health agencies, and other institutions as needed. The system will also be able to monitor a patient's progress, as well as adherence to recommended treatment plans. It will also seek to anticipate potential healthcare issues and provide preventive health and predictive health information tailored to each human.

Evolution of Health IT Systems


The following is a brief overview of the evolution and use of health information technology in the US since the late 1960's:
  • Health 1.0 (1970's – 1990) = Modular Health IT Systems, e.g. Patient Registration, Billing, Pharmacy, Lab…
  • Health 2.0 (1990's – 2010) = Integrated Electronic Health Record (EHR) Systems + Personal Health Records (PHR) + Clinical Imaging
  • Health 3.0 (2010 – 2020's) = Networked EHR Systems + Genomic Information + Wearable & Implantable Sensor Data
  • Health 4.0 (2030's – 2040's) = Global Networked EHR Systems + Artificial Intelligence + Convergence of all Technologies Above + Real-Time Data Collection & Analysis+Invisible User Interface

As we approach 2020, we are currently in the process of developing, and implementing Health 3.0 technologies and solutions in the US and other advanced nations across the globe. Preliminary design and pilot testing of some Health 4.0 solutions is just beginning.

Looking at 2040 and Beyond

Looking ahead to when Health 4.0 systems will finally start rolling into place, keep in mind some of the following predictions for Healthcare and Health IT systems by 2050. See Health 2020-2050.

  • By 2050 we will see more instances of global pandemics and the spread of deadly diseases as a by-product of the skyrocketing growth and migration of the global population.
  • Rise of 'Regenerative Medicine', Genetic Engineering, Stem Cell Research, and the development of 'Human Augmentation' technologies will dramatically alter people's life spans and capabilities.
  • Use of biorepositories and genomic information systems will further transform healthcare and help lower costs.
  • Emergence of future knowledge driven global health platform and solutions will be based on 'open' standards and technologies.
* Read Health & Health IT: 2030 and Beyond


Selected Links




Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Management in the 21st Century

Management practices in the 21st Century 'Information Age' are changing! New techniques and approaches are replacing many traditional methods that worked well in the 'Industrial Age' of the 20th Century.

Early on in my career I decided I wanted to be a manager, even before I understood exactly what that meant. I have since spent a lifetime studying management and trying to become the best manager I could be – while primarily working in the healthcare, information, and technology sectors. The foundation for my understanding of management was laid back in the 1970's, when I formally studied and obtained a Masters Degree in Management. I then spent over 40 years of my career putting into practice what I learned.

Major Management Functions - POSDCRB
  • Planning,
  • Organizing,
  • Staffing,
  • Directing,
  • Controlling/Coordinating,
  • Reporting,
  • Budgeting.

A number of recently published books have captured the key findings about new management approaches and techniques that are gaining strength as we move deeper into the 'Information Age' in this 21st Century. The following are a selection of just a few of these books that I would recommend today's managers ought to consider reading:

Modern 21st Century Management Practices
The purpose of this article is to distill many of the best lessons learned about managing in the 21st Century that might prove useful to managers today. While the major management functions remain largely the same, many new management techniques and approaches have emerged as we move deeper into the 'Information Age'. So without further ado, here is a fairly concise list of advice and lessons learned that may complement some of the older, traditional management practices you may have have been taught before you first started out. Here we go!
  • Management processes still used in many industries and companies today were designed and developed over a century ago for the 'Industrial Age'.
  • Almost every industry or company today is information-driven to some extent, e.g. publishing, healthcare, government, finance, transportation, manufacturing, energy…
  • While traditional command and control management structures are still applicable to some organizations, most modern information-based companies rely on knowledge workers that thrive on freedom, collaboration, self-direction, experimentation, communications, sharing…
  • Culture, mission, vision, and strategy go hand-in-hand. They are key to the success of your organization over the long term.
    • Take the time to carefully capture and define the culture, mission, vision, principles and values of your organization – write it down!
    • Authenticity and honesty are key! People know when an organization's mission and vision statement are simply nice sounding 'bull shit' sound bites.
    • Continually communicate and reinforce the culture, mission, vision, and values to your management team and employees, as well as to your stockholders and customers.
  • Continuous innovation and quality improvement are key to the long-term survival of organizations today.
  • Maximizing short-term value should always take a back seat to a commitment to long-term plans for success.
  • Traditional hierarchical organizational structures may not be a good match for many information-based companies of today. They tend to restrict communication, collaboration, innovation and productivity.
  • Traditional office structures and layouts may not be a good match for many information-based companies of today. Again, they tend to restrict communication, innovation and productivity.
  • Stop listening exclusively to your Highest Paid Person's Opinion (HIPPO); start listening more to your smartest and most creative people.
  • Keep the organization as flat as possible, with many small to mid-size productive teams that have ready access to senior management.
  • Senior managers or leaders should be productive people that fully understand the business, e.g. technology, healthcare, military, transportation...
  • Focus on building an 'open' platform that will allow you to grow quickly and globally, e.g. Internet, Linus, Facebook, Google, Twitter, YouTube, …
  • Many mature organizations with roots in the 20th Century tend to be hierarchical, 'closed' systems versus today's more 'open', flexible and 'flat' organizations.
  • Many mature organizations tend to prioritize short-term revenue goals over creative new solutions and long-term growth.
  • Collaboration, Open Solution, and Innovation (COSI) are key management strategies for success in today's global knowledge-based economy.
    • 'Open' systems allow one to harness the power of thousands of external partners.
    • Defaulting to 'Open' tends to foster increased innovation, while also lowering costs.
[Collaboration + 'Open' Solutions = Innovation]
  • Recruiting and staffing for today's knowledge-based companies is even more important for success than in the past. Great care should be paid to every new hire. People truly are your organization's most valuable asset.
  • Direction and Decision-Making remain key management functions. The primary difference today is that major decisions are often made by consensus after examining a wealth of hard data and information versus the more traditional authoritarian approach of the past.
  • Knowledge-based companies in this 'Information Age' tend to favor the Consensus & Coordination versus Command & Control approach.
  • Reporting remains a key management function to track progress towards major goals and objectives. The primary difference today is that reports must be primarily based on hard data and shared with as wide an audience as possible – both up, down, and across the organization.
  • Budgeting and financial management are key management functions. Approximately 80% of your finances should be focused on supporting and enhancing your core business, while at least 20% should be spent on exploring and developing new products and services for future growth.
  • Again, in today's knowledge-based 'Information Age' organizations, communications up, down, and across the organization is key. Default to 'open' – sharing all you can with others.

Major Resources to be Managed – 4M'S & I
  • Manpower,
  • Money,
  • Machines,
  • Materials,
  • Space,
  • Information.

Other Management Suggestions

The following are some last observations and thoughts for today's managers to seriously consider:
  • 'Our people are our most important asset' is a cliché that is often tossed around loosely by many organizations that don't really believe what they say. To them, people are simply 'human resources' to be hired and replaced without any real concern. Employees are brighter than you think and will soon see right through this lie.
  • All key knowledge-based employees should be encouraged and allowed to spend 20% of their time at work reading, studying, or working on new innovations. This will ultimately benefit the organization in many ways.
  • Day-to-day decision-making should be distributed downward, leaving only the major decisions to be made by senior management. Decisions then need to be communicated up, down, and across the organization as widely as possible.
  • Intelligence, creativity, passion, character, integrity, honesty, self-learners, … these are the qualities you want to look for when hiring and retaining staff. Be wary of employees who are 'bullies', hostile, manipulative, dishonest, loners, …
  • Many traditional communication techniques still apply in today's environment of email, instant messaging, televideo,… Management by walking around and face-to-face conversations remain extremely valuable techniques.