The Coming Wave: Autonomous and Semi-autonomous Warfare Systems, e.g. Drones, AI…

In the outstanding book ‘The Coming Wave’ by Mustafa Suleyman, he argues that autonomous and semi-autonomous systems (e.g. drones) are part of an unstoppable technological “wave.” They are cheap, scalable, modern tools that can be deployed by state and non-state actors. In warfare, this changes the balance of power because traditional military advantages and technologies that can be undermined by swarms of inexpensive, intelligent drones.

Drones in the Ukraine War — Real-World Application

1. Proliferation of Drones

• Both Ukraine and Russia have deployed thousands of drones in the Ukraine war.

• Consumer drones are widely used for reconnaissance, artillery targeting., and destructive attacks.

2. Swarm Tactics

• Ukraine has already experimented with swarm tactics: deploying multiple drones to overwhelm air defenses.

• Russia is investing heavily in counter-drone tech and electronic warfare to mitigate this threat, but they are way behind the curve.

3. Asymmetric Impact

• Small drones costing a few hundred to a few thousand dollars have destroyed tanks and other traditional weapons worth millions.

• Suleyman’s thesis about small actors gaining disproportionate power is vividly illustrated in his book.

4. AI Integration

• Increasingly, drones are being equipped with AI to improve navigation, targeting, and autonomy.

• Suleyman warns that autonomous killing systems are hard to control and regulate — the Ukraine war is testing these limits.

5. Crowdsourced Warfare

• Civil society and tech enthusiasts are contributing significantly to drone innovation and tactics.

• This “democratization of warfare,” a core idea in The Coming Wave, is unfolding rapidly in Ukraine.

The Big Picture

The Ukraine war is a live demonstration of ‘The Coming Wave’s’ concerns about warfare technology:

• Warfare technology is becoming more accessible.

• Autonomous systems are reducing the cost of precision violence.

• Control over these technologies is slipping away from traditional regulatory frameworks.

Future Military Doctrine & Strategy — Lessons from the Ukraine War


1. Distributed, Networked Warfare

• Traditional doctrine is built around large, centralized platforms e.g. aircraft carriers, tanks, fighter jets.

• The success of cheap, networked drones in Ukraine suggests a shift to ‘distributed’ lethality:

• many new small, cheap, expendable assets have emerged, operating in swarms or coordinated formations, controlled via mesh networks and AI-assisted targeting

2. AI-Driven Autonomy

• Suleyman warns of the many risks of autonomous weapons. Militaries see their potential:

• self-flying drones that require no human operator

• loitering munitions with facial recognition and target identification

• drone-on-drone dogfighting and more

• This is pushing strategy toward human-on-the-loop or even human-out-of-the-loop engagement — highly controversial, but increasingly practical.

3. ‘Attritable’ Warfare

• New doctrine embraces cheap, highly effective and expendable) platforms like:

• swarm drones

• uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) in naval warfare

• ground robots for logistics and assault

• The goal is to saturate enemy capabilities and trade quantity for survivability.

• Ukraine’s success with $500 drones disabling $10 million  systems has inspired global militaries to rethink strategies and weapons procurement.

4. Counter-AI / Counter-Drone Operations

• Electronic warfare (EW) and soft kill systems (jamming, spoofing) are becoming core doctrinal pillars.

• Expect to see:

• doctrinal emphasis on mobile EW units

• layered air defenses specifically designed for small drones

• AI-driven counter-drone drones (hunter-killer drones already tested in Ukraine)

5. Rapid Adaptation & Citizen Innovation

• Ukraine’s use of civilian coders and hobbyists to adapt drones in real-time highlights:

• the declining monopoly of professional militaries over innovation

• doctrine will increasingly include partnerships with civilian tech ecosystems

• acquisition cycles will need to be measured in weeks/months, not years

6. Psychological & Strategic Implications

• The omnipresence of drones alters soldier and civilian experience of war:

• persistent overhead threat → higher stress, fatigue

• strategic messaging: viral videos of drone strikes shape global opinion

• Future doctrine will address not just physical countermeasures but also psychological resilience and information warfare.

🚀 Summary

Think deeply about the impact drones, AI, robotics, autonomous war machines… will have on America’s military and that of other nations. Think of the consequences and impacts on civilization. 

This short blog was generated using ChatGPT artificial intelligence (AI) software, a new tool that can be used to help create a first draft of articles for use by authors or bloggers. 

* Also, check out the outstanding book ‘The Coming Wave’ by Mustafa Suleyman.